Local officials brace for unpredictable Election Day turnout

State election administrators are sending out more absentee ballots than ever, but local officials aren't sure how many Montana will cast votes this election. They stress that Montanans can still register to vote on Election Day and can use IDs that were acceptable in recent elections.

Turnout for the primary was typical for a non-presidential election at just 39.4 percent of the state's registered voters, but some officials anticipate the high number of absentee ballots sent out could encourage more voting than in past midterms.

"Predicting voters' habits is really tough, but because we have so many mail-in ballots we expect to see a lot higher turnout," said Missoula County's elections administrator Bradley Seaman.

As of today, more that 492,000 absentee ballots have been sent to voters statewide for the general election. That's up significantly from the 254,000 ballots sent to voters in 2014, two midterm elections ago. The number of registered voters had reached a record 758,000 as of Oct. 24.

Seaman said he hopes to see turnout above 85 percent this election but cautioned he also seeing a number of college students becoming inactive by moving out of state.

Montana voters have a reputation for turning out in higher numbers than those in other states, though turnout in off-year elections often lags. Turnout in Montana's 2018's mid-term election was 71.5 percent. Four years earlier, the turnout was 55.4 percent.

Connor Fitzpatrick, the elections supervisor in Lewis and County, also said turnout may be up, but he suspects a return to in-person voting could be the reason. In response to COVID, most Montanans voted by mail two years ago, when the state saw record turnout of 81 percent.

Whatever the turnout, Fitzpatrick said he has sufficient staffing for Election Day but added that his crew was stressed by the whiplash over court rulings blocking new laws that would have restricted same-day registration and the kind of identification voters would need.

The laws were enjoined in April, a month after Fitzpatrick became supervisor, and then the injunction was lifted so they were in effect during the primary. The laws were then permanently enjoined and declared unconstitutional on Sept. 30, less than two months before Election Day.

Fitzpatrick said he trained election judges on both rule sets in the case of any 11th hour changes. Meanwhile, the county is working to get the word out on social media and radio about same-day registration and which IDs will be accepted at the polls.

"I learned really quickly that regarding election laws, you want to stay on your toes," Fitzpatrick said. "I got proverbially burned once; we're going to keep that from happening again as much as we can. It's certainly bringing a lot of questions into elections when there are already too many questions. It just brings voters confusion when there shouldn't be any."

Gallatin County election administrator Eric Semerad said turnout in his county may resemble the 2018 midterm, though he is encouraged by Montana State University students' ability to use their college IDs to vote.

He also said he expects long lines for same-day registration at the election's office, but added that his staff is prepared.

Kevin Gillen, interim Yellowstone County election administrator, also said same-day registration will add to the workload, but he has "an army" of people willing to help respond to Election Day rushes.

Some smaller counties, however, are scrambling with limited staffs, and fear the return of same-day voter registration could overwhelm them on Election Day.

Mandi Bird Kennerly, the clerk/recorder in Glacier County who has overseen elections since 2019, has just two elections officials working with her. Both have been there for less than a year and a half. She said her office is preparing to start work at 4:30 a.m. that day and work up to 24 hours straight, with little room for meals. Glacier County serves 8,000 registered voters.

"People coming in on Election Day to get reissued ballots is going to really hurt us physically, mentally and emotionally, but we just deal with it. That's what we do," Kennerly said.

Although Kennerly said her county's five post offices will lighten the load by collecting absentee ballots, she is frustrated that she can't do more than buy limited radio or newspaper ads to encourage voters to drop off absentee ballots in person or vote early.

Nor can her county afford to hire and train more election officials, she added.

"It's very difficult to train somebody properly. We are very dedicated people, because it's super stressful and shaving years off our lives," Kennerly said.

More populated Montana counties are working hard to educate voters on all the possibilities, including same-day registration. Missoula County's Seaman also emphasized in-person voting options at polling places across his county,

"We're going to continue to encourage people and make sure they know all the ways they can vote, and we hope for as much participation as our county can muster," he said.